Data for this study was collected in January.
management confidence It started to decline sharply at the end of 2021 and continued to decline until the end of 2022. There was a brief recovery in 2023. The sentiment indicator rose slightly at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2024, but has been negative since the beginning of 2022. It is currently below the series average since 2012 (-4.0).
| 2019 | January | Four |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | April | 2.4 |
| 2019 | July | 0.9 |
| 2019 | October | -4.6 |
| 2020 | January | -1.6 |
| 2020 | April | -51.9 |
| 2020 | July | -22.8 |
| 2020 | October | -15.9 |
| 2021 | January | -11.4 |
| 2021 | April | 0 |
| 2021 | July | 11.9 |
| 2021 | October | 12.9 |
| 2022 | January | -0.6 |
| 2022 | April | -9.9 |
| 2022 | July | -12.5 |
| 2022 | October | -22.2 |
| 2023 | January | -13.2 |
| 2023 | April | -8.1 |
| 2023 | July | -8.3 |
| 2023 | October | -10.1 |
| 2024 | January | -7.7 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | ||
Business confidence is negative in most sectors
Business confidence is negative in almost all sectors. The only sectors in which managers are somewhat positive overall are the information and communications sector and the business services sector. Business confidence improved in six of the 14 sectors, with other services and construction posting the biggest increases. Confidence in companies engaged in automobile trading, repair, transportation, and storage has declined again. The mood in the mining and quarrying industry has deteriorated the most, with companies in this sector having the most negative situation of all sectors.
| Total (excluding financial companies and utility companies) | -7.7 | -10.1 |
|---|---|---|
| Telecommunications | 2.3 | 2.9 |
| business services | 1.6 | -2.3 |
| Other services | -1.5 | -14.7 |
| Culture, sports and recreation | -2.4 | 0.1 |
| Retail trade (excluding automobiles) | -5.4 | -10.4 |
| manufacturing industry | -7.1 | -13 |
| real estate activities | -8.1 | -7.1 |
| Wholesale and consignment trading | -8.3 | -8.3 |
| Accommodation and food services | -13.5 | -13.1 |
| Transport and storage | -13.7 | -8.4 |
| construction | -15.9 | -24.3 |
| Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | -16.9 | -18.3 |
| Car trade-in and repair | -21.5 | -14.8 |
| Mining and quarrying | -28.9 | -2.4 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | ||
Key obstacles facing businesses
The percentage of business owners reporting reduced demand as a primary barrier increased for the seventh consecutive quarter. Over 20% of entrepreneurs reported this. Labor shortages remain the most frequently cited barrier, at just over 35 percent, but this proportion has gradually declined in recent quarters. Lack of production resources will be less and less reported as the main obstacle facing businesses from mid-2022 onwards, with the number currently reporting this reaching 7%. Almost 34% of companies say they are not facing any obstacles.
Companies are less negative about profitability
Roughly the same number of companies reported an improvement in profitability as reported a deterioration in profitability last quarter. So overall, the atmosphere was neutral. A year ago, just over 5% of companies reported a decline in profitability. The mood regarding profitability improved the most in the real estate business, rising from almost -15 percent to just over 7 percent. The mood in construction and business services (currently the most positive sector) also changed from mainly negative to positive. Sentiment actually worsened in sectors such as auto trade and repair, transportation and storage. The agriculture, forestry and fisheries industry had the worst business confidence regarding profitability.
| Total (excluding financial companies and utility companies) | 0.1 | -5.1 |
|---|---|---|
| business services | 11.2 | -1.5 |
| Telecommunications | 9.4 | 8.2 |
| real estate activities | 7.2 | -14.9 |
| Other services | 6.3 | -7 |
| construction | 5.3 | -7.9 |
| Car trade-in and repair | 2.9 | 11.1 |
| Wholesale/commission transactions | -1 | 0.6 |
| Culture, sports and recreation | -1 | -8.8 |
| manufacturing industry | -1.7 | -1 |
| Transport and storage | -4.5 | 2.4 |
| Retail trade (excluding automobiles) | -10.4 | -20.4 |
| Accommodation and food services | -15.5 | -25.6 |
| Mining and quarrying | -16.8 | -5.1 |
| Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | -26.2 | -21.2 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | ||
Investment outlook for 2024 is less positive
Corporate investment expectations for this year are also close to neutral. A year ago, just over 3% of companies expected investment to increase rather than decrease. Expectations for investment fell the most in the information and communications sector and the automobile trade and repair sector. Executives in these sectors expect less investment than last year. The same applies to the accommodation industry, restaurant industry, and wholesale industry. Only in the retail sector did overall expectations turn positive, compared to negative a year ago. The real estate industry is the most positive for future investment. The most negative expectations are for the agriculture, forestry and fisheries industries.
| Total (excluding financial companies and utility companies) | 0.6 | 3.1 |
|---|---|---|
| real estate activities | 29.4 | 27.3 |
| Culture, sports and recreation | 13.5 | 14.8 |
| Retail trade (excluding automobiles) | 8.9 | -5.8 |
| Other services | 8.3 | 8.6 |
| business services | 6.6 | 4.5 |
| Mining and quarrying | 3.8 | 12.5 |
| manufacturing industry | 0.4 | 7.7 |
| Transport and storage | 0.4 | 6.6 |
| Wholesale/commission transactions | -1.5 | 6.0 |
| Telecommunications | -4.2 | 11.7 |
| Car trade-in and repair | -5.2 | 6.1 |
| construction | -5.8 | -6.5 |
| Accommodation and food services | -7.4 | 1.4 |
| Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | -15.0 | -18.9 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | ||
