Impact of industry differences
What has happened to change the trajectory of Ohio's GDP growth since 2021:Q4? Looking at GDP growth by industry may help answer this question. Table 1 shows 19 broad industry categories and their associated GDP growth rates and activity shares in the United States and Ohio. The far right column also shows Ohio's ranking among all states for growth by industry from 2021:Q4 to 2023:Q3.
Table 1: U.S. and Ohio real GDP growth by industry, Q4 2021 to Q3 2023
| arts, entertainment and recreation | 21.4 | 36.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2 |
| information | 9.7 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 32 |
| professional services | 7.7 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 19 |
| retail industry | 8.9 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 37 |
| education | 5.1 | 7.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 12 |
| health care | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | twenty one |
| mining | 18.3 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 30 |
| administration | 2.3 | 1.0 | 11.4 | 10.2 | 35 |
| Accommodation and meal services | 1.8 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 36 |
| construction | -1.5 | 0.0 | 3.9 | 3.5 | twenty one |
| management | 9.6 | -0.3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 41 |
| administrative services | 0.6 | -0.5 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 28 |
| Finance/Insurance/Real Estate | -0.1 | -1.9 | 20.9 | 22.6 | 35 |
| Other services | -1.7 | -2.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | twenty five |
| manufacturing industry | 0.0 | -4.3 | 10.6 | 15.4 | 39 |
| public works | 4.9 | -4.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 36 |
| transportation and warehousing | 3.9 | -5.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 49 |
| Wholesale | -4.9 | -7.2 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 29 |
| Agriculture | -2.0 | -15.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 28 |
Note: Ohio's ranking compared to other states. A value of 1 indicates that the specific industry had the highest GDP growth rate among states. Agriculture and mining ranks out of 46 states, and manufacturing and utilities ranks out of 48 states.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
One notable outlier was arts, entertainment, and recreation, where Ohio's inflation-adjusted activity increased by more than a third over this period, the second-largest increase among all states. However, the industry's contribution to the state's total GDP growth was limited, as it accounted for a relatively small share of overall output, approximately 1% in Ohio and the United States. An industry's contribution to total GDP growth can be calculated by multiplying its growth rate by the share of the relevant activity. From Q4 2021 to Q3 2023, professional services and healthcare had smaller increases in activity than arts, entertainment, and recreation (11.0 percent and 7.2 percent, respectively), although the former two industries increased in size. contributed more to Ohio's growth during this period. as a percentage of total state activity (6.0 percent and 8.7 percent, respectively). At the other end of the spectrum, a large decline in agricultural activity (-15.2%) contributed more to Ohio's GDP growth than smaller declines in finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE) and manufacturing (-1.9%). It had a more modest negative impact. -4.3 percent, respectively, considering the much larger share of national activity of the latter two industries (22.6 percent and 15.4 percent, respectively). In fact, these two industries had the most negative impact on the state's GDP growth.
Moreover, these two industries appear to be important drivers of GDP growth differences across all states since the end of 2021. Figures 3a and 3b show state-level scatter plots of changes in the growth of these industries (horizontal axis) and aggregate GDP growth from Q4 2021 to Q3 2023 (vertical axis). .
