June 2024 Results
Optimism among Canadian small businesses
CFIB's Business Barometer® long-term index, based on expectations for business performance 12 months ahead, was stable at 56.3 in June. The short-term optimism index, based on outlooks for three months ahead, fell less than one point to 51.6.
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Most provinces saw a slight improvement or no change in long-term optimism. Ontario's optimism fell about two points following a strong increase the previous month, helping Canada's largest province maintain a healthy confidence level of 56.0. The gap in long-term optimism between provinces has narrowed gradually, now ranging from 49.1 in New Brunswick to 56.8 in Prince Edward Island.
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Long-term optimism improved slightly across most sectors in June. The largest increase in confidence was seen among companies in the hospitality sector (+4.1 points). The top three most optimistic sectors remain information, arts and recreation (62.9), finance, insurance and real estate (62.5) and professional services (59.0).
Inflation Indicators
The average price inflation index fell to 2.5, similar to the level recorded in April 2021. Plans for average wage increases over the next 12 months also fell to 2.5 in June and are expected to remain around this level from August 2023 onwards.
Other indicators
Plans for both full-time and part-time hiring are modest. However, labour shortages remain a major constraint, although they are less severe than last year and the main problem is a skills shortage.
The main constraint on business growth is the cost of doing business. Insurance and wage costs remain high and are close to peak levels of the past few months. Occupancy and borrowing costs are now affecting twice as many businesses than they were before the pandemic.
methodology
These results are based on 662 responses from a stratified random sample of CFIB members who completed a limited-access Web survey June 4-14. Survey results are statistically accurate 19 times out of 20 to +/- 3.8%. Each month, the entire index series is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses from the previous month. Measured on a scale of 0 to 100, an index above 50 means more business owners expect their business to perform well in the next three or 12 months than those who expect it to perform poorly. Index levels closer to 65 typically indicate the economy is growing at its potential rate.
The next Business Barometer is scheduled to be released on July 25, 2024.
For regional information on business optimism, pricing plans, restrictions and major cost constraints for SMEs, see Business Barometer, Retrospective.
Andrea Bourgeois, Director of Economic Affairs
Simon GodlEhrt, Vice President of Research and Chief Economist