One of the biggest challenges facing CEOs today is increased volatility and uncertainty about the future. Now the orbit is disturbed by what appears to be an unexpected force. However, creating organizational continuity requires leaders to better anticipate future conditions. We now face situations where geopolitics, global supply chains, or non-adjacent industries can impact our companies, so making these predictions accurately requires understanding how external forces outside our industry can shape our companies.
In an era defined by accelerating technological change, demanding stakeholder expectations, global risks, and cultural shifts, leaders often have no room to imagine, let alone think. Still, imagining is essential to determining future direction. The leaders I advise often talk about the pressure to keep an eye on everything, have answers at hand, and anticipate the next disruption. But the truth is that no one person, no matter how talented, can see the whole picture alone.
Even the most effective executives cannot monitor every new technology, policy change, and societal trend. How can leaders develop the foresight necessary to see what will happen next?
The US military offers two unexpected models. When General Martin Dempsey became the 18th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the nation's highest military branch, he recognized the need for a broader worldview that included economics, politics, and culture. But, as he says, “I knew my schedule wasn't mine and would fill up in quick succession.” So he created a new role. Personal learning campaign manager.
In this role, the colonel read widely beyond Dempsey's usual focus and connected Dempsey with thinkers he would not otherwise have met. For example, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve never meets with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. But if you think about it, economic prosperity is the key to peacekeeping. result? Sharp, highly informed decision-making, foresight on U.S. geopolitics, and increased efficiency for Dempsey.
The key is to delegate to individuals and groups to broaden horizons, stimulate thinking, and introduce new parallels.
Another model involves commander-led groups (CIGs), which are small, purposefully structured groups. Several special operations leaders rely on these teams to read signals, extract the important from the trivial, investigate new situations, and determine what will happen next. Within elite forces, CIGs serve as curious and trusted partners, clarifying problems, exposing blind spots, and helping leaders envision a different future.
Corporate versions of these groups also exist. The forward-thinking leaders of multi-billion dollar, multi-generational family businesses that I work with have realized that even though their companies are at the top of their industry, the industry is continually changing. He said he once assembled a team from 12 different departments within his company and asked provocative questions. If a competitor exists six years from now and has all of our strengths and none of our constraints, how will they outperform us? Teams were given eight weeks to research, imagine, develop their competitors, and present their findings.
Some of the group had been with the company for a short time, while others had recently joined from outside. The mixed history with the company was necessary to address the refrain, “We tried it before and it didn't work, or we can't change it because it's tradition.” So you need someone in that room with a history who knows how to overcome them, and someone with a fresh perspective who can think about things differently.
At the end of the challenge, they developed 10 insights. Six years later, nearly all of those predictions have come true.
Another company example is Novartis, a global pharmaceutical company. The CEO and CHRO wanted to transform their culture in a forward-thinking way to better serve their more than 100 million patients. To support their project, we created a Cultural Leadership Advisory Board comprised of 10 internal presidents and 10 external thought leaders and futurists (including myself) to help reimagine the company's cultural DNA. My experience on this team gave me a front-row seat to how intentional teams of internal leaders with external boundary-crossing instigators can accelerate an organization's adaptation to new and future environments.
The role of each of these future teams is one of imagination rather than execution. It’s about helping CEOs think beyond boundaries, connecting dots that others might miss. It's not just about analyzing trends. They helped the leaders become wiser.
So how should CEOs and boards think about the composition of such teams? Three principles stand out.
1. Futures work starts with character, not credentials.
The most effective Futures teams are not just technically proficient; They have the relational wisdom to intentionally create safe spaces for honest exploration. The advice of retired Sergeant Major Larry Hobbs and retired Col. Heather Maki, who led SIGs in special operations, was to look for creative thinkers who see possibilities where others see constraints, and critical thinkers who understand how systems work over time. Both members can be the most optimistic people in team meetings, but don't overlook those who are internal challengers and provocateurs. But above all, they embody the virtues that make collective imagination possible: humility, curiosity, and a willingness to share their ideas.
These people help leaders grow because they care about the company and are owners of the company's mission. They can reveal the truth without compromising credibility. They can challenge assumptions while affirming a leader's deeper purpose. In this sense, their value is not merely analytical, but moral. They help leaders stay grounded in what matters, even when faced with an uncertain horizon.
“Ultimately, the impact of these teams will enable organizations and their decision-makers to anticipate opportunities and risks, be proactive, agile and resilient when change occurs, and enable organizations to deliver the fullest value they can be,” said Hobbs.
2. Promoting diverse perspectives increases foresight.
Just as our friendships shape who we are, who sits on our future teams will shape what we see as leaders. The ideal Futures team is a blend of internal members who understand the organization's context, culture, and constraints, with external voices that stretch imaginations and bring unfamiliar lenses. Internal members are senior enough to understand the system, but not so advanced that the information is filtered. External members provide perspective, pattern recognition, and independence of thought.
The goal is not to gather the “smartest people,” but to gather people who together expand the horizons of leadership. It should cover job duties, age, experience, and thinking preferences. They need to be able to shift roles from clarifyer to integrator to ideator to implementer depending on the task at hand. And most importantly, you must be given the time and space to do the work, even if it's not your real job.
3. Cultural contextualization and conditions make teams effective.
Futures teams cannot grow without the right cultural conditions. Leaders must make clear through their signals that imagination is essential. Teams need disciplined analysis as well as the freedom to explore wild ideas. Their work needs to be iterative, from drafts to hypotheses to prototypes of thinking, rather than final answers. And standards such as clarity, trustworthiness and honesty at the management level in all communications must remain high.
After all, Futures Team is not a think tank. A learning community. Leaders become their best selves through the people they surround themselves with, so expanding their relationships expands their intelligence. These teams remind us that good leadership is not about predicting the future, but about developing the wisdom, humility, and imagination to successfully deal with it.
A dedicated Futures team creates several organizational advantages.
• Augmented intelligence: They double a leader's cognitive reach, uncover blind spots, and connect cross-disciplinary insights.
• Preparing for the future: Regular scenario planning helps management anticipate disruption rather than reacting to it.
• Trust and collaboration: Including internal members establishes ownership, grounds ideas in real-world situations, and improves organizational culture.
• Creativity and openness: Because futures teams operate outside of normal hierarchical structures, they encourage open discussion and non-linear thinking, qualities that are often lost in corporate meetings.
When building these teams, organizations aren't just preparing for what's next. From a long-term talent perspective, this is a form of development for Futures team members to become more effective leaders for the organization. And in both the short and long term, Futures teams are shaping leaders and cultures that can create a more thoughtful, more humane and sustainable future.
