This morning's 6-3 Supreme Court decision invalidating President Trump's IEEPA tariffs is the most significant trade news in decades. For mid-market CEOs who have spent the past year absorbing higher margins, re-pricing products and rerouting supply chains, it's tempting to treat this as a clear-cut. it's not. The legal landscape may have changed dramatically, but uncertainty has not disappeared. It's just moving to another location.
Think briefly about what questions you need to ask today and who to ask them.
What took a hit and what didn't?
Who should I ask? Trade lawyer or customs broker. It's today, not Monday.
The court invalidated tariffs imposed by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, including “Emancipation Day” reciprocal tariffs on nearly all of the United States' trading partners and tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China related to the fentanyl enforcement action. What remains: steel and aluminum tariffs under Section 232, existing Section 301 China tariffs, and anything else imposed under legal authority. Before you do anything else, honk your horn and have your trade advisor explain, line by line, which tariffs apply to certain imports and which ones no longer apply.
Will I get my money back?
Who should I ask? The CFO and trade advisor will work together. Customs brokers can help you re-establish the documentation trail.
Probably not right away, and maybe not at all. The ruling does not mention retroactive refunds, meaning the dispute could go all the way back to lower courts and drag on for years. The government has collected more than $130 billion under IEEPA since the beginning of 2025, but courts won't easily give it back. Don't build expectations for refunds into your financial projections. Just in case a refund mechanism eventually materializes, make sure your records are clean, meaning all customs duties paid are organized by entry code and HTS code.
Will President Trump simply revert the tariffs back into another law?
Who should I ask? You already know the answer to this question, but it's worth talking to a trade lawyer or trade association.
yes of course. Even Justice Kavanaugh's dissent (voting with the administration) acknowledged that the president likely has an alternative path to many of the same tariffs. Sections 232, 301, 201, and 122 of the Trade Act all remain available. The difference is that these routes require more process and, in some cases, parliamentary involvement. This is a restructuring of trade risks, not an elimination.
Should we reverse the pricing decisions we made to absorb customs costs?
Who should I ask? First might be the CFO, then the head of sales, and most importantly, the customer.
Not reflexively. Prices rose over 12 months. They should not fall without a deliberate decision. And your competitors are in the same position as you. The more prudent short-term question is whether they can repurpose recovered margins into competitive pricing, customer retention, and investments that were frozen by rate uncertainty. The answer varies from company to company. That's why you need to get this answer in front of your CFO and top sales leaders before you say anything to your customers.
What about sourcing decisions made to avoid tariffs?
Who should I ask? Chief Supply Chain Officer responsible for legal and finance.
There is nothing now. While reshoring and nearshoring moves are expensive, they are not costless to eliminate either. Before changing course, evaluate each decision on its own merits, regardless of rate status. If your current relationships with domestic or nearby suppliers are truly competitive in terms of quality, lead time, and total cost, maintain them. If the only reason you made the transition was to avoid tariffs, please reconsider carefully. The administration still has realistic tools to reimpose tariffs, and the past year should have taught everyone something about building supply chain resilience regardless of the trade environment.
How do we treat boards and investors?
Who should I ask? Legal advisor and CFO. For civil servants, we also serve as IR advisors. Don't wing this.
You've probably cited tariff exposure or mitigation costs as a key factor in earnings calls, board presentations, filings, etc. Only that calculation has changed. The board should hear from you today, or first thing on Monday, with a clear overview of what has changed, what hasn't changed, and what they are monitoring. CEOs of public companies should have their general counsel and investor relations team on board before communications go awry.
What's the real point here?
Who should I ask? That's a really good question. No one knows what will happen next.
This judgment is a landmark event. This is another ruling, and the administration has shown that if one sentence is taken away, it will find another way. The era of price fluctuations is not over; we are just entering a new phase. The companies that fared best last year weren't the ones that predicted policy correctly. They built flexibility into their operations, procurement, contracts, and balance sheets. This lesson does not expire with this ruling.
