April 5, 2024 9:15 AM | 2 minute read |
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Legendary investor Tim Melvin uncovers little-known “triple-threat stocks” in his Yield Report. Want to take advantage of great opportunities in both bear and bull markets? Find out if you qualify for a yield report. Get access now for just $0.99 here!
The US economy may be on the brink of recession, according to Lakshman Achyutanco-founder of Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) and business cycle experts.
what happened: ECRI's leading economy index, known for its near-perfect track record, has been trending downward over the past year, Business Insider reported. Despite a recent leveling off, historical patterns suggest that declines in this index often precede recessions.
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“This does not guarantee a recession, but it does show that many people are vulnerable to shocks,” Achuthan warned.
“In many cases, that really speaks to the fragility of the business cycle.”
Other economic signs also point to a slowdown in the U.S. economy. Projections for GDP growth in the first quarter show a sharp slowdown, with the Atlanta Fed expecting it to expand by only 2.5%. The U.S. coincident index, which incorporates data on GDP, employment and retail sales, has hovered near 0% for the past two years.
Related article: Private sector employment increases by 184,000 in March, better than expected: “Wages rise''
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Achusan also cited deteriorating employment conditions. Despite seemingly solid job growth, the unemployment rate has been steadily rising, hitting a two-year high in February. ECRI's Cyclical Working Conditions Index, which tracks cyclical work impulses, showed a significant decline, reflecting a pattern seen before past recessions.
why is it important: Mr. Achusan's observation suggests an economic “tug of war.” Problems could arise if external support, such as pandemic spending and labor hoarding, wanes. Other economists, such as David Rosenberg, have also warned of the possibility of a recession, especially since inflation could persist and the Fed could keep interest rates high for an extended period of time.
This is the president joe biden They claim the economy is “strong” even though 50% of voters feel their fiscal situation is worsening.
Concerns have also been raised about the risk that baby boomers' retirement accounts full of “fake assets” will collapse and cause them to go bankrupt. robert kiyosaki Author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad.''
Read next: S&P 500 and Nasdaq stumble in today's market: What's driving stock futures lower?
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Discover the power of “triple threat stocks” now.
Legendary investor Tim Melvin uncovers little-known “triple-threat stocks” in his Yield Report. Want to take advantage of great opportunities in both bear and bull markets? Find out if you qualify for a yield report. Get access now for just $0.99 here!
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