Data for this study was collected in July.
As of July 2023, CBS is introducing a new method of calculating business confidence that includes a time series recalculation. See the background article for more information. Entrepreneur confidence declined from the end of 2021 to the end of 2022. There was then a tentative recovery in 2023, but the indicator remained negative.
| 2018 | January | 17.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | April | 13.9 |
| 2018 | July | 11.5 |
| 2018 | October | 8.9 |
| 2019 | January | Four |
| 2019 | April | 2.4 |
| 2019 | July | 0.9 |
| 2019 | October | -4.6 |
| 2020 | January | -1.6 |
| 2020 | April | -51.9 |
| 2020 | July | -22.8 |
| 2020 | October | -15.9 |
| 2021 | January | -11.4 |
| 2021 | April | 0 |
| 2021 | July | 11.9 |
| 2021 | October | 12.9 |
| 2022 | January | -0.6 |
| 2022 | April | -9.9 |
| 2022 | July | -12.5 |
| 2022 | October | -22.2 |
| 2023 | January | -13.2 |
| 2023 | April | -8.1 |
| 2023 | July | -8.3 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | ||
Negative mood in most sectors
Entrepreneurial sentiment was negative in almost every sector at the beginning of the third quarter. The only areas where entrepreneurs are slightly more positive are information and communication, culture, and sports and recreation. Mood improved in these sectors and in retail for the third consecutive quarter. Confidence in the construction sector and real estate activity increased most significantly, but remained the lowest of all sectors. Another indicator of the construction sector is compiled by the EIB according to the old method. This sentiment indicator declined, but remained positive. Confidence fell most sharply among entrepreneurs in auto maintenance and repair services, wholesale trade and commission trading.
| Total (excluding financial and public sector) | -8.3 | -8.1 |
|---|---|---|
| Telecommunications | 2 | 1.3 |
| Culture, sports and recreation | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Transport and storage | -2.1 | -6.1 |
| business services | -3.9 | -0.5 |
| Retail trade (excluding automobiles) | -6 | -8.1 |
| manufacturing industry | -7.3 | -5.2 |
| Wholesale/commission transactions | -7.4 | -0.7 |
| Mining and quarrying | -7.8 | -11 |
| Car trade-in and repair | -Ten | -0.9 |
| Other services | -10.4 | -4.4 |
| Accommodation and food services | -10.8 | -7.7 |
| Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | -13.1 | -12.7 |
| real estate activities | -13.3 | -20.7 |
| construction | -24.5 | -32.3 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | ||
Increase in negative opinions regarding order positions
Overall, entrepreneurs were negative about their expected order positions, with the indicator showing a further decline compared to last year. As of the beginning of the third quarter of 2023, his 2% of entrepreneurs expected the value of their order positions to decrease in the next three months. A year ago, nearly 5% of him overall still expected improvement. This is the first time in 2021 that the expected order position has become negative.
Across most sectors, entrepreneurs are more negative or less positive about their expected order positions compared to last year. The biggest declines will be seen in culture, sports and recreation, manufacturing, and motor vehicle trade and repair. Entrepreneurs were the most negative in the latter category, with nearly 15% of respondents expecting the order situation to worsen. Accommodation and food service entrepreneurs are also less positive than last year, but still the most positive of all sectors. Overall, nearly 9% expect an increase in purchase orders.
| Total (excluding financial and public sector) | -1.9 | 4.7 |
|---|---|---|
| Accommodation and food services | 8.9 | 19.4 |
| real estate activities | 5.9 | 6.2 |
| Culture, sports and recreation | 0.9 | 13 |
| construction | -0.7 | 3.9 |
| Wholesale/commission transactions | -1.7 | 6.7 |
| Telecommunications | -2.8 | -0.9 |
| business services | -2.8 | 1.6 |
| manufacturing industry | -3 | 8.2 |
| Transport and storage | -3 | 2.3 |
| Other services | -3.3 | -7 |
| Retail trade (excluding automobiles) | -3.4 | 4.9 |
| Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | -5.9 | -7.9 |
| Car trade-in and repair | -14.7 | -3.2 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | ||
Investment outlook for 2023 is less positive
As of early Q3 2023, about 17 percent of entrepreneurs expected to make more investments this year compared to 2022. About 16 percent expected investment to decline, and the remaining 67 percent expected investment to remain stable. So overall, almost 1% expects an increase in investment. A year ago, this was still just over 7% of entrepreneurs. This is the first time since the start of 2021 that investment prospects have been this low.
In most sectors, entrepreneurs still predict a balanced investment increase. Expectations vary widely by sector, but we see deterioration in almost all sectors. The areas where investment prospects have fallen the most are accommodation and food services. Overall, nearly 8% expect their investment amount to decrease. A year ago, the division was expected to increase by more than 16%. The people most negative about investing this year are entrepreneurs in the agriculture, forestry, fisheries and construction industries. The most positive sectors are culture, sports and recreation.
| Total (excluding financial and public sector) | 0.9 | 7.3 |
|---|---|---|
| Culture, sports and recreation | 21.1 | 9.9 |
| Mining and quarrying | 14.8 | 34.5 |
| Transport and storage | 13.1 | 15.4 |
| Car trade-in and repair | 11.7 | 8 |
| real estate activities | 11.3 | 19.9 |
| Telecommunications | 4.2 | 6 |
| Wholesale/commission transactions | 3.9 | 9.3 |
| manufacturing industry | 1.7 | 11.4 |
| business services | 1.7 | 5.3 |
| Retail trade (excluding automobiles) | -2.4 | 1.2 |
| Other services | -3.7 | -0.3 |
| Accommodation and food services | -7.9 | 16.5 |
| construction | -9.6 | 0.9 |
| Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | -Ten | -5.2 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | ||
