Data for this study was collected in October.
Business confidence declined sharply from the end of 2021 to the end of 2022. There was then a brief recovery in 2023, but the indicator remained negative. At the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2023, the sentiment indicator again showed a slight decline. Confidence is below the series average of -3.9.
| 2018 | January | 17.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | April | 13.9 |
| 2018 | July | 11.5 |
| 2018 | October | 8.9 |
| 2019 | January | 4.0 |
| 2019 | April | 2.4 |
| 2019 | July | 0.9 |
| 2019 | October | -4.6 |
| 2020 | January | -1.6 |
| 2020 | April | -51.9 |
| 2020 | July | -22.8 |
| 2020 | October | -15.9 |
| 2021 | January | -11.4 |
| 2021 | April | 0.0 |
| 2021 | July | 11.9 |
| 2021 | October | 12.9 |
| 2022 | January | -0.6 |
| 2022 | April | -9.9 |
| 2022 | July | -12.5 |
| 2022 | October | -22.2 |
| 2023 | January | -13.2 |
| 2023 | April | -8.1 |
| 2023 | July | -8.3 |
| 2023 | October | -10.1 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | ||
Negative mood increases in most sectors
Entrepreneurial sentiment was negative in almost every sector at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Only in the information and communications sector is the balance of entrepreneurs slightly positive. The local mood has improved for four consecutive quarters. The largest declines were seen in transportation and storage and manufacturing. Entrepreneur confidence in real estate, mining and quarrying showed the most notable increase, but remains negative. The lowest sentiment indicators are in the construction sector and agriculture, forestry and fisheries. However, while the survey results are not as positive as in his pre-2023 quarters, building contractors are still overall positive on most other metrics in the survey, such as production and sales trends.
| Total (excluding financial and public sector) | -10.1 | -8.3 |
|---|---|---|
| Telecommunications | 2.9 | 2.0 |
| Culture, sports and recreation | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| business services | -2.3 | -3.9 |
| Mining and quarrying | -2.4 | -7.8 |
| real estate activities | -7.1 | -13.3 |
| Wholesale/commission transactions | -8.3 | -7.4 |
| Transport and storage | -8.4 | -2.1 |
| Retail trade (excluding automobiles) | -10.4 | -6.0 |
| manufacturing industry | -13.0 | -7.3 |
| Accommodation and food services | -13.1 | -10.8 |
| Other services | -14.7 | -10.4 |
| Car trade-in and repair | -14.8 | -10.0 |
| Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | -18.3 | -13.1 |
| construction | -24.3 | -24.5 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | ||
More and more entrepreneurs see lack of demand as the main obstacle
As of early Q4 2023, nearly 20% of entrepreneurs identified lack of demand as the biggest obstacle to running their business. A year ago, this was still just under 14%. This is the sixth consecutive quarter that the number of entrepreneurs citing obstacles has increased. A relatively large share is active in transportation and storage or manufacturing. However, the main obstacle to running a business remains a lack of staff, as noted by more than 40% of entrepreneurs. The impact of insufficient production resources was just over 9%, down from over 20% a year ago. More than 31% do not experience any problems.
| 2018 | January | 9.0 | 20.5 | 4.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | April | 8.4 | 22.4 | 5.3 |
| 2018 | Julie | 8.2 | 28.1 | 5.3 |
| 2018 | October | 8.7 | 29.6 | 5.2 |
| 2019 | January | 9.1 | 27.0 | 5.5 |
| 2019 | April | 9.3 | 27.2 | 5.2 |
| 2019 | Julie | 11.0 | 28.3 | 4.2 |
| 2019 | October | 11.6 | 28.0 | 4.0 |
| 2020 | January | 13.9 | 25.3 | 3.9 |
| 2020 | April | 22.9 | 11.0 | 5.4 |
| 2020 | Julie | 28.6 | 11.2 | 5.1 |
| 2020 | October | 26.2 | 13.0 | 4.5 |
| 2021 | January | 22.6 | 11.9 | 4.8 |
| 2021 | April | 19.5 | 15.2 | 9.0 |
| 2021 | Julie | 14.7 | 27.9 | 15.4 |
| 2021 | October | 11.9 | 37.3 | 16.9 |
| 2022 | January | 11.5 | 34.2 | 16.8 |
| 2022 | April | 10.3 | 42.3 | 23.8 |
| 2022 | Julie | 11.2 | 47.7 | 21.8 |
| 2022 | October | 13.7 | 46.6 | 20.6 |
| 2023 | January | 14.5 | 42.5 | 15.6 |
| 2023 | April | 16.0 | 40.8 | 13.3 |
| 2023 | Julie | 16.4 | 40.6 | 11.7 |
| 2023 | October | 19.5 | 40.3 | 9.2 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | ||||
Sales, staffing and investment expected to increase in 2024
Although business confidence was negative in the fourth quarter of 2023, the overall outlook for 2024 is positive in terms of sales, staffing and investments, with only a small difference from last year's outlook. Overall, over 17% of entrepreneurs expect their 2024 sales to be higher than their 2023. The sales outlook for next year is brighter than last year, but still not as optimistic as it has been for the past eight years. In particular, sales are expected to increase over the previous year in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries industry and real estate rental and sales.
Additionally, overall, more than 14 percent of entrepreneurs expect to increase the number of employees in 2024 compared to 2023. This percentage is lower than he was a year ago, especially in the transport and storage and manufacturing sectors. More than 4% of entrepreneurs (overall) said that they will make more investments in 2024 compared to 2023. The outlook varies widely by sector. For example, in real estate, almost 30 percent say yes, and in retail, more than 23 percent say yes. Meanwhile, investment in entrepreneurs in agriculture, forestry and fisheries, construction, and accommodation and food services is expected to decline next year.
| 2018 | 30.4 | 17.2 | 8.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18.9 | 13.0 | 5.0 |
| 2020 | 17.8 | 3.9 | -6.3 |
| 2021 | 37.2 | 29.1 | 15.3 |
| 2022 | 13.7 | 16.2 | 3.4 |
| 2023 | 17.4 | 14.3 | 4.4 |
| Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW | |||
