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Q2 2023
Economic Insights — Our algorithms for identifying state business cycles were no match for COVID-19. But behind these decisions is an art in science.
The coronavirus recession was so short-lived, but also so deep that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) classified it as a recession unusually quickly, even though it didn't meet normal criteria. decided to call. Similarly, we chose to ignore the algorithm we created to identify state-level recessions. Instead, we determined that each state experienced a brief pandemic recession. This article explains the reasons behind that decision.
This article was published in the Q2 2023 issue. economic insight. Download and read the entire issue.
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